The Possible Aftermath of COP – 15

5 Nov

tb_copenhagen_denmarkThis triplet of scenarios has made it’s way through the tubes already, beginning with Reuters and then to Treehugger, but its worth giving some thought, so I will write it again. What we’re looking at, are three possible outcomes of the COP – 15 Climate talks. Some of these are more likely outcomes than others, but all are possibilities nonetheless. So, after December 19th, we can expect one of three things:

  1. A broad international agreement – Given that the United States actually signs a climate bill by December, which includes targets for 2020 and funding to help developing countries reach their targets. This would be fantastic, as it would urge developing countries to meet target reductions. Sadly, this appears to be very wishful thinking.
  2. Figure it out later – Lets say the US doesn’t get any Climate bill through the process until early 2010. In this situation, they begin making a case to form agreements at the next scheduled climate agreement talks in Germany in June 2010. If this is the likely case, developing countries will hopefully use the time in Copenhagen to make agreements that are conditional upon the  promises of the United States. 
  3. No Climate Bill in US Senate – If the US senate does not pass the climate bill, there is a possibility that other countries will go ahead with making commitments in hopes that the US will finally fall in. Will it? Won’t it? 

I honestly have no idea what will happen at this conference. But I’m hoping for the best. And will be happy with the second best. My fingers are crossed. Whatever the United States does, its highly likely that Canada will follow in its step. 

– Tyler

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